Climate response variable: - sfcWind,
tas, pr: original scale daily,
reduced scale: hourly - clt, rsds:
original scale monthly, reduced scale: daily
Training: - Response: ERA5 in reduced scale - Data perdiod: 1980
- 2015.
- Predictors: from CMIP6 (daily or monthly) - Predictors variables:
sfcWind, tas, pr,
tasmax, tasmin and psl in daily
scale, clt, rsdt,rsds in monthly
scale, the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily
daylight amount in seconds.
Validation:
| Metric | naive | lstm | cnn | xgboost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −1.10 | 1.45 | −5.27 | 7.53 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.83 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 0.86 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| maximum_error | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.59 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| rainy_hours_ratio_of_means | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.89 | 0.95 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| acf_mae | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | lstm | xgboost | naive | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −1.32 | 4.57 | −4.78 | −8.99 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.85 | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.98 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.59 | 0.53 | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| maximum_error | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.23 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.25 |
| rainy_hours_ratio_of_means | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.79 | 0.86 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| acf_mae | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.06 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | lstm | naive | xgboost | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −1.30 | −4.32 | 5.57 | −8.86 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 1.01 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| maximum_error | 0.35 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.29 | 0.47 | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| rainy_hours_ratio_of_means | 0.82 | 0.81 | 0.94 | 0.89 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| acf_mae | 0.11 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | xgboost | lstm | naive | cnn |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | −18.59 | −22.31 | −24.89 | −29.17 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.93 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.62 | 0.70 | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| maximum_error | 0.28 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| rainy_hours_ratio_of_means | 0.74 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| acf_mae | 0.15 | 0.13 | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | naive | cnn | lstm | xgboost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 19.99 | 20.21 | 20.64 | 30.08 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.71 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.42 |
| maximum_error | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.57 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.46 |
| rainy_hours_ratio_of_means | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.03 | 1.20 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| acf_mae | 0.17 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | naive | cnn | lstm | xgboost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 6.06 | 7.44 | 7.76 | 17.31 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.79 | 0.82 | 0.79 | 0.78 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.51 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.49 |
| maximum_error | 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.57 | 0.31 | 0.27 | 0.46 |
| rainy_hours_ratio_of_means | 0.87 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| acf_mae | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.
| Metric | cnn | naive | lstm | xgboost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| diff_of_means | 18.03 | 18.19 | 18.71 | 28.62 |
| ratio_of_sd | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| amplitude_ratio_of_means | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| maximum_error | 0.41 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes | 0.26 | 0.47 | 0.25 | 0.41 |
| rainy_hours_ratio_of_means | 1.14 | 0.98 | 1.01 | 1.19 |
| qqplot_mae | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| acf_mae | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| extremogram_mae | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
Observations: cumulative distribution (Detrended QQ), dependency structure (ACF), and extremes (Extremogram, using 0.97 cut off).
Daily/Monthly gruped: Maximum hour histogram (only in daily variables), Amplitude distribution.
Hourly/Daily grouped: Mean profile per hour within days (or weeks witihin season)
In all plots, grey color represent the true ERA5 signal.